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Global Warning - Apr 11, 2005 - Printable Version
- The North Shall Rise Again
by Robin Buckallew
I just filled up my gas tank this morning. As I was standing at the pump, I thought to myself "Holy hydrocarbons, Batman! Gas prices have certainly gone up since I last gassed up a month ago". This makes a lot of sense to me. For years, scientists have been predicting that we would hit peak production of oil sometime in the early 21st century. Estimates have ranged from 2010 to 2025. After the peak is reached, production will begin a slow and steady decline. United States oil production peaked around 1970. Since that time, we have never produced as much oil as in the heyday of the early 20th century. When worldwide production hits the peak, supply will no longer be able to rise to keep up with increasing demand. It's been difficult to estimate just when that peak will be reached. It becomes increasingly difficult as we discover that some oil companies have overestimated their reserves. Why would they do this? Simple - to drive their stock prices up. It's also been reported that some OPEC countries have overestimated their reserves, because their production limits are based in part on their reported reserves. Overestimating the reserves allows them to pump more oil. This in turn has kept the prices artificially low, and has resulted in further increases in the demand. Now, a new report has come out, with some scientists predicting the oil peak will occur in 2005. Hmmmm, why does that date sound familiar? Wait a minute, 2005. That's this year! What would a world without cheap oil look like? Well, that's easy - fewer SUVs and Hummers, right? Yes, and fewer cars, trucks, dune buggies, lawnmowers...the list goes on and on. But it isn't quite that easy. There are a number of other things that have become a standard part of life that also rely on petroleum products. I can sum it up in one word - Plastics. That's right, plastic is a petroleum-based product. Also, our fertilizers require a supply of petroleum. We heat and cool our houses with petroleum. Our war machine runs on petroleum. Without a steady supply of petroleum, we're just another upstart country pretending to be meaningful in the world. All the patriotism and all the prayer in the world won't make any more petroleum magically appear. No matter how many oil men we elect to public office, nothing can change the hard, cold facts. We have built our entire economy around a finite resource, and therefore, we have built a finite economy. As gas prices rise, we will begin to find out just what that means.
I would like to propose that there is a silver lining to this oil-slicked cloud. As the price of gas spikes upward, especially if it rises suddenly and drastically, people will find themselves rethinking their gas usage. They will find themselves cutting down on unnecessary car travel. Some will begin to walk whenever it is feasible, to bicycle for slightly longer distances. Mass transportation will suddenly begin to look good. I dug my train ticket out of my pocket - yes, it was definitely cheaper than a tank of gas. Not even considering such intangibles as tires, batteries, insurance, wear and tear and depreciation, and of course, the cost of the car itself. Unfortunately, this is at a time when the government is reducing their subsidies for train travel (already quite a bit lower than the subsidies for airplane travel, and a mere shadow of the subsidies for single-individual private car travel). So, mass transit in the already poorly served Midwest and south may soon be disappearing altogether. Most people in these areas say good riddance. They are tired of paying taxes to support a service they see no need for. After all, everyone who matters drives a car. We are firmly entrenched in the car culture.
It is on this note that I would like to propose that we find ourselves at a turning point in our history. A turning point socially, environmentally, and yes, politically. The rising price of gas could signal a significant shift in the balance of power worldwide. The people who are currently on the top politically and economically are on top because they have managed to commandeer a significant portion of the world's resources for themselves. The United States has long run on gas and oil, and we are responsible for a large portion of the fossil fuel consumption worldwide. For slightly more than the first half of the 20th century, we were able to produce the majority of the fossil fuels we consumed. But around 1970, the United States reached its peak oil production, and our production has fallen steadily ever since. We are now a net importer of petroleum, and rely on supplies in foreign countries to keep our economy running. As gas prices have continued to rise, demand has also continued to rise. In fact, the demand for gas has risen at about three times the rate of the increase in our population. For a brief time after the oil crises of the late 1970s, we had a short flirtation with fuel-efficient vehicles and high mileage regulations. But many of us are aware that over the past decade, cars have been increasing in size, and decreasing in fuel efficiency, until the old '57 Chevy looks practically small in comparison. Congress has resisted all suggestions that fuel efficiency regulations be tightened to address the problem. The President simply refuses to believe that there is going to be a shortage at all. We will solve the problem, it is believed, if we drill in Alaska, or sink more offshore oil rigs. Despite the fact that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is believed to have, at best estimate, only enough supply to provide for six months demand. And it won't be available for at least ten years. The offshore rigs are slightly better - the most recent estimate I saw on that would give us a two year supply of energy, at current demand. Congress just this week rejected a resolution submitted by Representative Henry Waxman that would have called for a reduction in our fuel use by one million barrels per day. This is just a drop in the bucket, but they were unwilling to consider it. Detroit, it seems, was against it, fearing it would lead to stiffer regulations on mileage. Our political system has been a hopeless failure at addressing one of the largest crises looming before us today. Our citizenry stays barely aware that there is a looming crisis, as the mainstream media downplays warning, or ridicules the scientists predicting the peak as "Cassandras" and "doomsayers". Meanwhile, Europe continues to forge ahead with smaller and smaller cars, and continues to maintain and utilize a mass transit system that is valued by their citizenry.
In a world where the gas is in short supply, those who rely on private transportation will have few choices. Our only options will be denial, conservation, huge debt, or war. Most likely, it will be some mixture of all the above. But denial will become increasingly difficult with long gas lines and skyrocketing prices. Debt can only take you so far before your economy becomes hopelessly bogged down, and you join the Third World in an escalating spiral of interest payments and austerity budgets. War has always been considered an option by the American military-industrial complex. But war requires heavy inputs of fossil fuels to fuel the war machine. Eventually, we will have to wake up, face the dawning reality, and sign on to conservation. We will need to cool our homes less impressively in the summer, and keep them slightly less toasty warm in the winter. We will need to cut back on our plastics, particularly those that are used once and discarded. And above all, we will need to reduce the amount of miles we drive, and increase the efficiency of the machines we use to get us from place to place. Eventually, the world will belong to those who embrace mass transportation. This, in fact, encompasses the entire world outside the United States. While we struggle and scrimp and fight over gas and oil, the rest of the world will be walking, biking, and taking the bus and the train where they need to go. They have built walkable, bikable cities - something sadly lacking in most of the United States. They will tighten their belt, pay a little more for their train ticket, and find a way to move forward into the 21st century and the dawning of a new era, a gas-light era.
Meanwhile, back in the good old United States. For many years now, the south has held a strangle-hold over the politics of the entire country. Every presidential election, it is the same story. The same debate about whether or not the candidate is acceptable to the south. In fact, it is no longer a matter of being acceptable to the south - conventional wisdom now tells us that the candidate must BE FROM the south. Pundits and talking heads spend countless hours of fluffy-headed air time debating whether or not a particular program will appeal to the Deep South, or to the Bible Belt. Candidates from the northeast are ridiculed as pointy-headed, effete intellectual elitists who drink latte and eat bagels. In addition, those effeminate northeasterners are accustomed to habits that seem peculiar and alien (like from Mars type alien) to the friendly folks south of the Mason-Dixon line - they are used to riding the train, the bus, the subway. Many citizens of New York City don't even own a car. They manage their daily routine without ever having their white-knuckled hands wrapped tightly around the steering wheel. If the dire predictions about petroleum peak production are true, they will be able to adapt. They are already prepared. Yes, I've been told they will have the same problems we will, because of the need to heat their homes. But this is a minor problem compared to transportation. There are many other ways that one can heat their home, and most homes can be adapted to those fuels rather quickly. They might have some rather frigid days while they await the retrofitting, but they'll get through. The other fuels they adapt to might not be any more environmentally friendly than gas, but they will keep them warm while they are getting the solar panels and wind farms in place. Other than that, their routine will be little disrupted in places like New York City, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington D.C. They will simply get on the same bus, subway or train they've gotten on for years, and continue going to work while their counterparts in the South and Midwest are waiting in line at the gas pump. All these places, all these hotbeds of left-wing, liberal, "pinko", "envirowhacko", "feminazi" thinking are going to be able to keep the country running while the rest of us stand in vain at a deserted train station waiting for a train that hasn't run in 50 years.
So, it might be wise to get ready now. What will the world look like when the European Union and the northeastern United States have shifted the balance of power to themselves? Will they be kind and responsive to the needs of those of us stuck in the states that refused to accept mass transportation and hid our head in the sand as we wasted the last traces of the vital lifeblood of our economy? Or will they simply look down upon us in our misery, call us unpleasant names ("wimps" and "whiners" come to mind), and ignore our sorry bleating as they go about the business of their business? Only time will tell. Once the north rises again.
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