HOME
Message Board
CURRENT COLUMNS
- Editor's Corner
- Blogfest 2005
- Commentary
- Commentary Too
- Down The Middle
- Faulking Around
- Global Warning
- This guy walks into a bar...
- Investing 101
- Faulking Opinions
- Off The Rail
- Words
ARCHIVES
LINKS
CONTACT US
 | |||
Down The Middle - Sep 5, 2006 - Printable Version
- Damascus!
by Down The Middle
With sanctions against Iran being rejected “out of hand” by Russia, along with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s continued defiance, one must wonder just how far…or should I say, just how near are we to another war in the Persian Gulf. Russia’s opposition to the sanctions should come as no surprise, as it’s relationship with the U.S. has noticeably cooled in recent years due to America’s repeated, aggressive attempts to influence producer nations of the former Soviet Block. These nations are not only strategically important for their newfound wealth of oil reserves and “northern” pipelines but also lie on or near Russia’s (and China’s) frontier.
The U.S. is also allowing Israel to threaten Russia’s long time ally, Syria, which may be the intended “flash point” of the coming global war. Tensions are still very high, in the wake of Israel’s attempt to rout Hezbollah from Lebanon and the slow-gathering emplacement of multi-national peacekeepers can only serve to hasten any renewed attacks by Israel. Even when fully in place, the peacekeepers may be more of an asset to Israel than a liability.
As I have said before, the IDF attack on Lebanon may in fact be a precursor to an attack on Syria. Israel only needs Lebanon as a “buffer” zone, to secure it’s left flank. It does not need…nor should want to possess Beirut, at least not at this time. With much of the Lebanese infrastructure destroyed or heavily damaged, IDF divisional forces are free to mount a major offensive against Syria, from the Golan. If you take Syria, Lebanon will fall.
Either Israel or the U.S. will attack Iran to eliminate their nuclear program, which is believed by some to be within two years of going “missile ready”. Israel may indeed launch the first strike but the U.S. will “carry” the sustained air campaign. Israel, on the other hand must use its air and ground forces to defeat Syria, preferably before it has a chance to fully re-arm with newer, more effective weapons from Iran and Russia.
Damascus is the key!!! To defeat Syria, Damascus, quite possibly the oldest city in the world must be taken or destroyed. This may not come easy for Israel, as recently demonstrated in Lebanon but they are obliged to do so. My fear is that when Syria proves to be a much more formidable foe for Israel than in past wars, the Israeli government may opt to use a nuclear weapon on Damascus, especially if the U.S. has already…or simultaneously done the same, against Iran’s underground facilities.
The fact is, in the eyes of Israel and the U.S., Syria has very little to offer. Without much oil or any other tangible resource, Syria is nothing but a wealth of resistance that will never go away. The United States can ill afford to get bogged down in another Iraq and Israel is not going to allow them to be “bled”, as we have.
But the really bad news is beyond the horizon. Many British and Americans feel secure in fighting a war with Iran and Syria, especially with the fear of a “radical” Islamic Bomb…but they do not realize this will not stop at the “democratization” of the Middle East. Russia will defend Syria and Iran with its own military by attacking Israel, in concert with the Islamic Federation.
As the deadline passed for Iran to halt enrichment program, the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., John Bolton was stacking on more evidence and making it very clear that a unanimous vote of the Security Council was not imperative to other members acting on their own. Later the same day (8-31-06), President Bush was quoted as saying "It is time for Iran to make a choice. We've made our choice. We will continue to work closely with our allies to plan a diplomatic solution, but there must be consequences for Iran's defiance and we must not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.”
With Congressional elections in the U.S. drawing near, a pre-emptive strike in the next ten weeks is a very strong possibility…but any “event” (real or imagined) either over here or over there would trigger another round of violence that could easily escalate into an expanded war. At this point, the only question left to ponder seems to be “when”?
Voice your opinion on our message board (you don't have to sign up to post).